A product that shows 25% returns today can finish at 55%. Reportly reads each size and channel against its own return curve while the orders are still open and projects where the rate will settle, weeks before the window closes. It names the driver too: in our own case, size M running small.
Returns arrive over weeks. A rate read in the first ten days counts the orders but only the earliest returns, so it always looks better than the truth. By the time the window closes and the real figure shows up, the reorder has shipped.
For every SKU, size and channel, Reportly keeps the return curve of the cohorts that have already finished. The open cohort is read against that curve. The projection is recomputed every day from your own orders and returns; nothing is estimated from an industry average, and the basis is shown next to the figure.
The projection is broken down by size (XS to XL), by channel (store, Macy’s, Nordstrom) and by reason (too small, changed mind, quality, color). When one size carries the problem, that is a fit note for the manufacturer, not a markdown.
The Chelsea Shearling Jacket was booked at 25% returns with the reorder a day away. Scout flagged a projected 55%, pinned it to size M (61% of M coming back, exchanges going up a size), and the spec note went to the manufacturer instead of the purchase order. The fit was corrected on the next run.
As soon as a cohort has enough orders to read against the finished cohorts, usually within the first one to two weeks of a launch.
Yes. Returns from Shopify and from the marketplaces are enough for the rate and the size breakdown. Loop adds the reasons and exchanges.
No. It is computed from your own finished cohorts and shown with its basis. Where the history is too thin, Reportly says so rather than projecting.
Yes. Scout watches every SKU, size and channel and raises an alert when a projection crosses the threshold you set, with the evidence and the work ready: the spec note and the re-cut size run.
Prefer to install from Shopify? Billing goes on your Shopify invoice.
© All rights reserved. Reportly AI LTD.